Nathan’s Racebook: Doomben preview   Leave a comment

Nathan’s Racebook: Doomben preview

Golden Falls just needs some luck in running to figure prominently at Doomben. Picture: T

Golden Falls just needs some luck in running to figure prominently at Doomben. Picture: Trackside Photography Source:Supplied

COURIER Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby runs his ruler over the quadrella legs of Doomben’s eight-race card on Saturday.

Track: Good (4) Weather: Possible thunderstorm, 22C

RACE 5

In the run: The Storeman will kick up and then Rocky King will either sit outside, or cross him. . Seeking More will be third and then the others are going to find it very hard to get into the race.

Take note: The Storeman is drawn to have options this time from a much kinder draw, after Seeking More had all the favours last time.

Did you know: Favourites have a 44% strike rate at the Doomben 1000m start since 2012. The figure rises to 50% when they have drawn 1-5. Seeking More currently fits that profile. Kelso Wood has a 38% record with favourites from his past 379 attempts.

Early money: No real interest. Seeking More is shorter down south, where there has also been a sprinkling for Idle Chat, who is unwanted with UBET at $31.

Nathan’s tip: Seeking More $3

Nathan’s danger: The Storeman $3.80

Mario Caltabiano with Budget Bender at his Forest Lodge racing stables on the Gold Coast.

Mario Caltabiano with Budget Bender at his Forest Lodge racing stables on the Gold Coast. Picture: Regi VargheseSource: News Corp Australia

RACE 6

In the run: Union likes to run along and should do the same here. Expect Budget Bender and Tracey’s Angel to slot into nice trailing spots, with Goldslick rolling forward and trying to get in.

Take note: Soros was slow away and went right back last time, conceding too much start. Similar grade here, but much better draw. He can race well at odds.

Did you know: Budget Bender is very well placed after the claim for Luke Dittman, getting the certain gun run. Taking a line on weights and margins through Perfect Punch, he should be terribly hard to beat here.

Early money: Soros is $26 to $17 and some money also for Arctic. Tab.com.au has gone $7-$6.50 for Blue Lion, but UBET gambling against it at $11.

Nathan’s tip: Budget Bender $6

Nathan’s danger: Soros $17

Nathan is sticking with Riva De Lago in the second last leg. Picture: Tara Croser

Nathan is sticking with Riva De Lago in the second last leg. Picture: Tara Croser Source: News Corp Australia

RACE 7

In the run: Only a gentle tempo, with Faultless Dancer, Platinum State and Abu Ben Adam rolling forward.

Take note: Pillar Of Creation was ridden more urgently early last time and ran very well. Draw is more awkward this time, but Tim Bell can still be positive early and find the right spot. Hard to beat under those circumstances.

Did you know: Riva De Lago sat closer to the speed from a good draw first up, but has drifted back off wide gates at his past two and not had the best of luck. Should be closer this time and get more favours.

Early money: Real Surreal the $4.20 favourite and is shorter down south. Riva De Lago has been $5 to $4.60. Steel Zip solid at $7.

Nathan’s tip: Riva De Lago $4.60

Nathan’s danger: Pillar Of Creation $8

RACE 8

In the run: Could change complexion with eight emergencies potentially getting a run, but don’t see monster either way. Lucky Tom looked the logical leader and he’s out. Spanish Saga, Ekkareeza, Sambucca Shot perhaps the ones now.

Take note: Fixation was a rank disappointment last preparation, but showed promising signs with the first up run where he made ground in a race where they clocked a slick sectional. Extra trip suits.

Did you know: In winning last time, Golden Falls clocked quicker overall time than the Open Handicap and then produced a sizzling 22.08sec final 400m, which was .68sec quicker than Seeking More did in his easy 1050m win. Just needs some luck in running.

Early money: Golden Falls will just keep getting shorter now. Specking for impressive fresh winner Boy Scout ($26), who has halved his opening quote.

Nathan’s tip: Golden Falls $2.70

Nathan’s danger: Fixation $23

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Posted July 11, 2015 by belesprit09 in Uncategorized

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