Queensland Oaks 2015: Gai Waterhouse’s back-up plan a major plus for Bohemian Lily   Leave a comment

Queensland Oaks 2015: Gai Waterhouse’s back-up plan a major plus for Bohemian Lily

Gai Waterhouse has a great strike rate when backing up horses in big races. Picture: Tara

Gai Waterhouse has a great strike rate when backing up horses in big races. Picture: Tara Croser Source: News Corp Australia

GAI Waterhouse’s incredible record with horses backing up within seven days for a major race makes Bohemian Lily a formidable rival for Winx in Saturday’s Queensland Oaks.

Bohemian Lily’s romp in last Saturday’s The Roses produced an identical Weight For Age Performance Rating figure to the one lodged by Winx in the Sunshine Coast Guineas.

But according to WPR compiler Daniel O’Sullivan of The Ratings Bureau, Waterhouse’s record with horses backing up into Group races provides the bigger concern for Winx fans.

“For more than a decade Gai Waterhouse has been enormously successful with the seven day back-up tactic in preparation for Group races,” O’Sullivan said.

Blake Shinn returns on Bohemian Lily after winning at the Gold Coast. Picture: Luke Marsd

Blake Shinn returns on Bohemian Lily after winning at the Gold Coast. Picture: Luke Marsden Source: News Corp Australia

“Her strike rate of 22.3 per cent for a profit on turnover of 60 per cent (from 143 runners) is an incredible performance figure, when you consider the industry average is only seven per cent strike rate and 16 per cent loss.

“It highlights her tremendous success at winning these important races on a quick back up but also the fact her runners have on average performed much better than the market expected them to.”

The most recent example was Pornichet, who leapt off his Toowoomba Cup success to record a clear career peak in the Doomben Cup. Earlier in the season, Hampton Court won the Spring Champion Stakes at big odds after winning the Dulcify a week before.

Winx and Bohemian Lily come into the Oaks off 101.5 WPR performances, which is superior to the past four Oaks winners in their final lead-up.

Winx wins Sunshine Coast Guineas

“In terms of splitting the two, it’s very difficult,” O’Sullivan said. “Winx must rightfully be assessed as having a better winning chance, because she was disadvantaged getting a long way back last time but produced stunning sectionals, which indicated she could have rated higher had there been more speed in the race.

“However, she’s $2.50 and Bohemian Lily is $5, so the value edge in my opinion lies with Bohemian Lily. She has the right last-start form and rating and should have a position in running advantage over Winx.”

O’Sullivan said no other fillies meet the last start criteria of the past four winners. Ballet Suite has beaten both Bohemian Lily and Winx but has an inferior rating.

$500,000 Queensland Oaks (2200m)

Group 1, Doomben, Saturday, 3.57pm

1. BOHEMIAN LILY (NZ) Gai Waterhouse Blake Shinn 20 56.5kg

2. WINX Chris Waller Hugh Bowman 13 56.5kg

3. PLATINUM WITNESS Lisa Latta Damian Browne 14 56.5kg

4. BALLET SUITE Chris Waller Kerrin McEvoy 21 56.5kg

5. RUSTIC MELODY Kris Lees James McDonald 17 56.5kg

6. COL ’N’ LIL Ben Currie Luke Tarrant (a) 5 56.5kg

7. WHATALOVELYDAY Jon Walk Tegan Harrison 11 56.5kg

8. EXQUISITE JEWEL (NZ) Sue Walsh Jim Byrne 4 56.5kg

9. HEAVENS ABOVE Tim Martin Glyn Schofield 10 56.5kg

10. SWIFT LADY (NZ) John Sargent Tye Angland 16 56.5kg

11. SEBRINA Bjorn Baker Glen Boss 8 56.5kg

12. ANAPHORA Tony Noonan Timothy Bell 18 56.5kg

13. UNGRATEFUL ELLEN Robert Smerdon Craig Williams 12 56.5kg

14. NO TRICKS (NZ) Wayne Walters Michael Cahill 3 56.5kg

15. ZARZALI Bart & James Cummings Tommy Berry 9 56.5kg

16. YULONG BABY Mick Price Craig Newitt 19 56.5kg

17e. IMPERIAL LASS (NZ) Peter G Moody — 1 56.5kg

18e. CHAMPION STAGE (NZ) John Sargent — 6 56.5kg

19e. SHANDAARA (NZ) Robbie Laing —- 7 56.5kg

20e. MINE WITH LIME Matt Kropp —- 2 56.5kg

21e. STEWBALL Phyllis Kalinowski Kelvin Wharton 15 56.5kg

BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS

Originally published as Gai’s back-up plan a ratings winner

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Posted May 28, 2015 by belesprit09 in Uncategorized

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