Srikandi short of the mark, says ratings expert Daniel O’Sullivan   Leave a comment

Srikandi short of the mark, says ratings expert Daniel O’Sullivan

Bianca Gilcrist attends to Srikandi after trackwork at Doomben. Picture: Darren England

Bianca Gilcrist attends to Srikandi after trackwork at Doomben. Picture: Darren England Source: News Corp Australia

SRIKANDI needs to go to a clear new peak if she is to break her Group 1 duck in the BTC Cup on Saturday.

So says professional punter Daniel O’Sullivan, who produces Weight For Age Performance Ratings (WPRs) for The Ratings Bureau (www.trb.com.au) and is regarded as one of Australia’s premier form analysts.

During the recent Sydney autumn carnival, O’Sullivan labelled the likes of Volkstok’n’barrell, Vancouver, Miss Cover Girl, Kermadec and Criterion standout selections in their respective winning races, using the WPRs.

Srikandi has produced the peak sprint performance in Queensland so far this carnival, but O’Sullivan says she is still short of where the winning mark will likely land on Saturday.

“Our Boy Malachi returned a 104.7 first up and has rated to 105.5 in the past, so I regard him as the clear benchmark in this field,” he said.

Our Boy Malachi will be hard to beat in the BTC Cup on Saturday.

Our Boy Malachi will be hard to beat in the BTC Cup on Saturday. Source: Getty Images

“Trust In A Gust has gone to 104.8, although he was a long way short of that first up.

“Scissor Kick produced a 103.5 in the All Aged, so I would expect the winner of this will have to go to at least that mark, which presents a challenge for Srikandi based on what we’ve seen so far.”

The most interesting runner, according to O’Sullivan, is El Roca, first up off a 13-month break.

“He has figures of 105 and 106 in the bank as a three-year-old,” he said. “Obviously it’s hard to get a line on him first up off such a long break, but assuming he will get around the 54-55kg mark, those are winning numbers for a Stradbroke if he comes back to form.”

The WPRs have barely a margin between Leebaz and Pornichet in the Doomben Cup, based on their respective wins in Queensland this winter, but O’Sullivan says their numbers are still short of normal Doomben Cup standard.

“Streama produced a 105 last year and a few years back Mawingo went to 106.5 beating Lights Of Heaven, with a margin to Manighar,” he said. “So it looks a below average year, but I still think it’s probable the race will rate higher than 102 on the day.”

Pornichet has drawn barrier four in the Doomben Cup. Picture: David Martinelli

Pornichet has drawn barrier four in the Doomben Cup. Picture: David Martinelli Source: Supplied

Pornichet traded places with Leebaz at the head of betting on the Doomben Cup after Wednesday’s barrier draw. Leebaz drew gate 11, while Pornichet secured barrier four. However, punters are warming to Silent Achiever bouncing back after her last-start flop.

On WPRs, Silent Achiever (106.9), Foreteller (106.4), Moriarty (105.5), Hawkspur (104.4), Weary (103.5) and Green Moon (103.4) all have 12-month peak ratings well beyond the 102 mark.

The benchmark in Australia this season for 2000m was Criterion’s 110 in the Queen Elizabeth.

Le Chef is the richest two-year-old in Queensland this season, but O’Sullivan rates the peak performances of Wicked Intent and Secret Saga as the local benchmarks at this stage.

Wicked Intent rated 101.5 (Vancouver is the national standard-bearer at 107.5 for his Todman win) before the wheels fell off leading into the Magic Millions.

Secret Saga leapt to second on the list with her last-start Doomben win (99), while Typing forged her way into third spot with a brilliant Toowoomba win last week (97.8).

$500,000 BTC CUP (1200m)

Doomben, Saturday 4.07pm

1. TEMPLE OF BOOM Tony Gollan Tegan Harrison 6 58.5kg

2. TRUST IN A GUST Darren Weir Brad Rawiller 3 58.5kg

3. FONTELINA Anthony Cummings Jim Byrne 1 58.5kg

4. HOT SNITZEL Peter & Paul Snowden Blake Shinn 2 58.5kg

5. BIG MONEY Rodney Northam Robert Thompson 15 58.5kg

6. SACRED STAR Tony Pike Timothy Bell 8 58.5kg

7. KNOYDART John O’Shea James McDonald 9 58.5kg

8. OUR BOY MALACHI Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Tommy Berry 7 58.5kg

9. EL ROCA Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young Hugh Bowman 14 58.5kg

10. CAPE KIDNAPPERS Kelly Schweida Ric McMahon 5 58.5kg

11. SCISSOR KICK Paul Messara Tye Angland 4 57kg

12. TIME FOR WAR Stuart Kendrick Luke Tarrant (a) 13 57kg

13. NOSTRADAMUS Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Kerrin McEvoy 16 57kg

14. VILLA VERDE Anthony Cummings Glen Colless 12 56.5kg

15. SRIKANDI Ciaron Maher Damian Browne 11 56.5kg

16. BRING ME THE MAID Peter G Moody Chad Schofield 10 55kg

BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS

$650,000 DOOMBEN CUP (2000m)

Doomben, Saturday 3.27pm

1. GREEN MOON (IRE) Robert Hickmott Chad Schofield 14 59kg

2. FORETELLER (GB) Chris Waller James McDonald 9 59kg

3. MORIARTY (IRE) Chris Waller Hugh Bowman 5 59kg

4. HAWKSPUR Chris Waller Tommy Berry 2 59kg

5. BANCA MO Scott Brunton Dean Holland 7 59kg

6. WEARY (FR) Chris Waller Glyn Schofield 8 59kg

7. LEEBAZ (NZ) Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Jim Byrne 11 59kg

8. I’M IMPOSING (GB) Chris Waller Tye Angland 6 59kg

9. ESCADO Matt Laurie Stephen Baster 3 59kg

10. PORNICHET (FR) Gai Waterhouse Blake Shinn 4 59kg

11. HOPFGARTEN Robert Heathcote Damian Browne 13 59kg

12. ADDICTIVE HABIT (NZ) Lee Somervell Michael Cahill 15 59kg

13. SILENT ACHIEVER (NZ) Roger James Kerrin McEvoy 10 57kg

14. GYPSY DIAMOND Peter & Paul Snowden Craig Williams 1 57kg

15. EPINGLE (NZ) Michael Kent Glen Colless 12 57kg

BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS

Originally published as Srikandi short of the mark

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Posted May 7, 2015 by belesprit09 in Uncategorized

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